2026 Housing Market Outlook:

Is a 14% Surge in Home Sales Realistic?

As we look ahead to 2026, optimism is returning to the U.S. housing market. According to the National Association of REALTORS®, existing-home sales are projected to rise by approximately 14% next year—marking what could be the first truly measurable rebound after several difficult years.

That forecast was reinforced in November 2025 at NAR NXT, The REALTOR® Experience in Houston, where NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun outlined why conditions are finally aligning for renewed momentum.

What’s Driving the Optimism

NAR’s outlook is built on several converging trends:

Mortgage rates are easing, not collapsing.Rates are projected to average around 6% in 2026. This is not a dramatic drop, but it represents meaningful relief compared to recent highs. Yun emphasized that mortgage rates respond to broader economic forces—not just Federal Reserve policy—and those forces are now pointing toward modest improvement.

Job growth remains supportive.Continued employment gains are helping stabilize consumer confidence and demand, particularly among move-up and repeat buyers.

Market stability is returning.After years of volatility, the market is entering a more balanced phase—less frenetic, but healthier.

At the same time, home prices are expected to rise about 4% nationally, supported by steady demand and ongoing supply constraints. In other words, this is a recovery—not a correction.

Affordability Will Improve Unevenly

While affordability should improve overall, gains will be highly regional. Markets with strong new-home construction are positioned to benefit the most.

High-construction metros, such as Houston, were cited as examples where expanding inventory is already helping moderate prices and open the door for more buyers—particularly first-time purchasers—once mortgage rates ease further.

The takeaway is clear: local supply matters more than national headlines.

Who the 2026 Buyer Really Is

At the same event, NAR Deputy Chief Economist Jessica Lautz shared insights from the newly released 2025 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, underscoring how buyer demographics continue to shift.

• The typical home buyer is now 59

• The typical repeat buyer is 62

• The top reason people move today is to be closer to friends and family

Lautz refers to this trend as the “grandbaby effect”—a powerful reminder that lifestyle and relationships, not just finances, are driving housing decisions.

At the same time, first-time buyers remain under significant pressure:

• First-time buyer share has dropped to a record-low 21%

• Median first-time buyer age has climbed to 40

• High rent and student loan debt remain the biggest barriers

Affordability, not desire, is the core challenge for this group.

Why Agents Still Matter—Perhaps More Than Ever

Despite market complexity, one statistic remains strikingly consistent:

• 88% of buyers

• 91% of sellersused a real estate agent or broker in their most recent transaction.

As Lautz noted, the value lies in pricing strategy, targeted marketing, and navigating a shifting market—skills that become more critical as conditions normalize and buyers grow more selective.

So, Is a 14% Sales Increase Realistic?

It’s possible—but conditional.

If mortgage rates ease as projected, inventory continues to build in key markets, and job growth holds, a strong rebound is achievable. That said, many independent analysts still expect moderate single-digit growth, not a nationwide surge.

The more realistic takeaway?2026 is shaping up to be a healthier, more functional housing market—not a frenzy.

What This Means Going Forward

• Buyers will find more choice and slightly better affordability—but discipline still matters.

• Sellers must price and prepare thoughtfully; buyers are no longer forgiving.

• Investors and planners should watch regional supply closely—it will define opportunity.

After years of uncertainty, progress—not perfection—is the story for 2026.

Let’s talk real estate.